B-Day - Who Cares

Looking back with a single squinty eye, I see that GB and the EU have agreed to a further extension of Brexit until October 31, 2019.

Countless things could happen in this interim, too many to list and too frustrating to consider with a logical mind considering the previous circus we’ve observed.

As such, it doesn't help me in my efforts to get a work visa in Europe this year, so I'm looking away. But I will be very interested to see Halloween costume trends for the death rattle of an empire.

I've discovered this article on the website of an Italian international law firm. While GB-centric in its presentation of the looming "skills gap", the same can be said of a skills gap which will come to the EU. "The end of free movement will bring a raft of challenges which many businesses will have to face, not least will be additional costs." This means Visas will be required in the EU for native-English speaking workers.

Teacher's Strike in Poland

Teachers have been on strike in Poland since Monday. As always with strike, the ultimate goal is increased salary.

I'm getting lots of analysis from colleagues (who have day jobs as public teachers), and adult students (who are liberal until they are made to feel uncomfortable). And as always there is My Side, Your Side and The Truth.

I will explain the situation as I've been able to synthesize it.

First, some background:

Today, 100 zloty = 26 USD

The average salary across Poland in 2018 was approx. 4900 zloty / 1295 USD a month, which is around 3530 zloty / 934 USD after tax.

A first year teacher, newly graduated from University, is paid 1400 zloty / 370 USD per month before tax. After 25 years, a teacher in Poland can expect to finally hit the national average of 4900 zloty / 1295 USD before tax.

In Poland there are two teacher's unions - a large one and a small one -- and approximately 95% of teachers are in one of the unions.

In Poland the number of hours of class time per day is 3.6. This only includes time the student is actually being instructed. This doesn't count assorted time-consuming responsibilities the teachers have like preparing each lesson; creating tests; grading tests, papers, projects; duties within the school day like supervising lunch or break time, etc. Only instruction hours are ever counted in debate.

This week and next are three days of national end of year testing. Only persons with specific qualifications are allowed to administer these tests, and by law only if the students take THESE TESTS, and are then rated/ranked, are they allowed to take the Ginormous test at the end of school that basically determines their life forever more.

The larger of the teacher's unions called a strike for the week of these tests, to begin on Monday, and the smaller union joined in. Teachers would go to the school but would not interact in any way with the students. Headmasters were required to find personnel to "monitor" any students who did show up at school (in case their parents couldn't find other suitable day care).

The PiS propaganda machine in Warsaw went to work, delivering Alternative Facts such as "Teachers on average are paid 5000 zloty per month", which rural parents began quoting. Rural parents started calling teachers "Terrorists", saying that they only "work" 3.5 hours a day, they get "bank holidays", and they take 2 months holiday in the summer.

Educated, urban parents seemed to support the teachers in their efforts.

Headmasters quickly enlisted pensioner teachers to come to the school to administer the 3-day special tests, but the large Union got wind of this and objected due to the pensioners not having the proper qualifications to administer. So the PiS-controlled parliament changed the law so that the students ARE NO LONGER required to take these three-day tests in order to be able to take the Ginormous test.

At this time the head of the smaller union, against the express desires of a huge majority of his union members, caved to PiS pressure and said his teachers would go back to work. Amid speculation of bribery from Warsaw, this union is now losing membership like rats from a burning ship.

As of this writing there is no resolution. I find it interesting that the global tendency is to expect so much from teachers -- to be your kid's surrogate mother, for them to train your kid in ethics and compassion, to teach your kid the skills he'll need to run the world in the future -- but we always want to pay them almost nothing. And it seems the global reason is "they don't work during the summer".

An interesting component to this situation is how much cash the PiS party is expending to buy votes, and how much they are fighting to not pay teachers. Are teachers not as valuable as cows? Keep reading.

Recently the ruling party, PiS, in order to encourage Poles to increase the population, has been paying people for children. Upon having your second child, the government will provide you (regardless of your financial NEED) a payment of 500 zloty / 132 USD per month. Every subsequent child increases your payment by 500, with no limit. Total of 10 children: 9 * 500 = 4500 zloty /1190 USD per month.

As we are coming upon an election year, PiS is courting a new group of voters -- farmers. They are now hoping to buy farm votes by paying a one-time payment of 500 zloty / 132 USD per cow and 100 zloty / 26 USD per pig.

And a message, from teachers

B-Day - Who the Hell Knows?

I had to look away from the (circus? train wreck?) not just because it was frustrating to watch so much posturing leading to absolutely nothing getting done (why did I leave my corporate job again?) but also because I was just so embarrassed for those MPs who live such idealistic lives they cannot see the forest fire in front of them. It seems that they would argue that the boat should not have a hole, rather than bailing the freakin’ water.

And so, taking a quick peek with only one eye today, I see that Theresa May is begging Parliament to (believe the EU when it says that there will be no more negotiating and for god's sake just) take the deal as she's designed it. She's even sweetened the pot, saying if you'll just take this deal, I will resign (though I'm not sure if this is an actual resignation in defeat or if this is a victory lap where she screams "I can go home now!").

Some MPs living in an alternate universe still believe that the EU didn't REALLY mean there would be no more negotiating.

And so it seems the yard full of roosters will strut and crow, while a no-deal fox is calmly boxing up the henhouse.

Looking away again now………….

Poland: the book

I've been traveling throughout Poland, absorbing historical facts and dates. Couple these factoids with the people I've met and come to know, their worldview, their likes, dislikes, prejudices, personalities... Their interpretation of the past... Their expectations for the future.

And in my typical binary way I've wanted to shove all this into a simple cause-and-effect equation that I could use to understand the people here... and explain to others.

Luckily for me, a book showed up in my BookBub email - Poland by James Michener. ($2.99!)

Wow! I'm only 10% in but already I'm learning about so many of the places I've visited. Malbork Castle, Krakow, etc.

For instance, Genghis Khan and his Muslim Tatar horsemen regularly sacked southern Poland and "Golden Krakow", burning buildings to the ground, looting, killing and raping.

In winter break I visited Malbork Castle, and there I read glowing explanations of how the (German) Teutonic Knights were sent by His Holiness The Pope to bring Christianity to the pagans of Poland and Lithuania. This started in 1230, but in reality Poland had been Christianized since 966.

What I'm learning now is that this order had failed in their original mission in Jerusalem from 1190, and were searching for a home base when a minor Prince in northern Poland asked the Pope for some assistance fending off pagan mauraders from the east. The Teutonic Knights wrote a contract with the Prince (which he didn't understand) that they would come... and stay forever.

While these knights presented to the Pope and to the people of Western Europe a visage of piety against hordes of hairy, dirty pagans, in actuality the Order was making huge landgrabs, replacing the native peoples with Germans, monopolizing the trading of amber, and generally creating a giant Germanic country under their rule. (Deja vu!)

One thing coalescing in my mind is that, because of the inherent orderly nature and arrogant superiority of the Germans, the Poles developed a strong dislike for centralized rule. Which may explain culturally their inability to defend themselves from invaders over the millenia.

I shall see.

B-Day -?

After a day of Theresa May channeling Cirque du Soleil, the finale came down to an agreement: Brexit is extended until 22 May if May can get her deal (as it currently stands!) through the House of Commons, or 12 April if she cannot.

In further channeling news, I guess all presidents are Tweeters, but this guy actually gives information in his. 

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B-Day -7

When last we left our heroine, she was prostrating before the Cake Man, begging for just a little more time.

She landed here because time's awastin' and her current plan had been voted down twice already by Parliament. She had originally hoped to have it voted on again (third time's the charm!) buuuuut the Speaker (new character for us John Bercow) denied her that option. SO, since GB hasn't agreed on a plan, they need to have a wee more time to create said plan, OR leave next week March 29 with NO PLAN/NO DEAL (remember, 1970s divorce, sleeping on your mother’s sofa, driving a Gremlin).... Thus the request for extension.

Cake Man has responded with an option which, conversely, seems as if the EU is now thinking in quantum terms.... He says he can promise the extension will be granted IF she can promise her deal as it currently stands will be accepted.

Which seems to suggest that IF GB wants to continue debating and working on a plan -- requiring the EU participate to agree, negotiate, disagree on points -- the EU is not prepared to play. Basically "We're done." We’re takin’ our ball and goin’ home.

So, GB has been given a binary solution while in a quantum state of mind.... Current plan or no plan; on or off; 1 or 0.

Ground Control to Major Tom.....

B-Day -8

Parliament fiddles on, gnashing teeth at the fate of the parties, while the last vestiges of the once great Empire is inches away from the gunpowder. And on both sides rhetoric suggests both the GB voters and the EU are fed up with the posturing, delays, and Parliament's inability to get anything substantive done.

As I write MPs are drafting a letter to send to the EU requesting an extension, though they are currently debating if it should be a short extension or a long extension. Indications are that May will not agree to request a long extension.

The timeline is as such -- Parliament sends the letter to May (today?), who approves and tweaks and sends the request to the EU (today?). Then the EU will meet (March 22, Thursday) to discuss and vote on the request -- which must be approved by 100% of members. How often does THAT happen?

Regarding my burning question, I've found information online that GB expects Visas will be required for Europeans who want to work in GB after Brexit, following "the same visa rules as other migrants". Diplomacy being tit for tat, I can assume that the EU will follow with a reciprocal regulation in short order. Which theoretically puts me on a level playing field with GB teachers of English - potentially opening the door to Visa opportunities.

Will the timing of these Visa requirements work for me in the short term?

Will the GB voters ever understand the destruction they have wrought?

Will the EU throw a pie in GB's face?

Tune in again next time to find out!

B-Day -14

Currently in the quantum universe of Brexit, there are three options:

  • Theresa May's Deal, in which she has gained legally binding promises from the EU that GB will not be trapped forever in the "Irish backstop" -- remember that is the point of contention where they are herding cats to decide how to allow Republic of Ireland goods to flow freely into the EU, while ensuring GB (Northern Ireland) goods are inspected and taxed, without a hard border check between the Irelands, which apparently has Sinn Fein [remember them?] Riverdancing with joy at the logical end as they see it of a reunified Ireland

  • No Deal - which was handily defeated by Parliament "in all circumstances" on March 13, and therefore I guess it's really no longer an option.... which is good because I have no clue how to explain it other than to say the divorce proceedings would favor the EU, and GB would end up sleeping on the sofa in his mother's basement and driving a Gremlin....

  • Requesting an Extension from the EU - which could last up to 2 (more!) years and is being described as a calamity by hardline Brexit MPs. BBC politcal analysts suggest an extension could open doors such as starting negotiations from scratch; a new Brexit referendum (during which they assume the educated urban population might actually show up to the polls); a vote of no-confidence to May, which at this point holds about as much threat as a slap with a wet noodle, and really, who knows if GB will even have access to noodles in April; and a total abandonment of Brexit without consultation of the people. The entire business of the PM and Parliament has been consumed by Brexit for 2 years already -- can the country afford another two years where all they do is debate this dream held by people who just want things to go back to the way they never really were?

I call it quantum, because it seems Parliament as a group has suspended all understanding of reality and believe answers to closed end questions can be simultaneously YES and NO, OPEN and CLOSED, 1 and 0, depending upon who you are giving the answer to. But as explained by EU President Tusk , if you buy a cake and eat it, it's no longer there on the plate. So someone needs to come to an understanding of reality in this universe, get off the pot, and make some decisions for the good of the country.

And so, where does this put me? Who knows.

Schools I've spoken with are watching the situation and are actively considering options to begin providing Visas to Americans / Canadians / Australians / etc. And if Parliament votes next week to accept May's deal, these Visa machinations may need to jump into motion quickly to provide teachers for next fall.

However, a request for extension (assuming the EU grants it) will probably have the effect of relaxing European tensions to the point of the status quo of the last 20 years, believing the specter of Brexit will just fade away and disappear if they ignore it.

Life in an ashram in India is starting to look like a viable option!

Sunset Watch: Mar 10

While the US switched to Daylight Saving Time last night, Europe did not.... so Charlotte’s sunset is now approximately 7:30 pm, but I am still at 5:29 pm.

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B-Day -20

What is "the backstop"? I'm not sure where that terminology came from, but here is the point as I understand it.

Britain leaving the EU single market and customs union would, in principle, mean checkpoints along the 300-mile land border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic -- which has been "open" since the 1998 agreement ending the Troubles. These border checks would be required because the Irish Republic is staying in the EU, whereas Northern Ireland is part of GB and therefore will exit the EU with Brexit. As we learned in the John Oliver video, new border checks would theoretically be targets for Irish militants who want to reignite the Troubles.

The EU and Ireland suggest "the UK will follow many EU rules “unless and until” “alternative arrangements” ensure no hard border." But GB getting out from under these EU rules is the reason Brexit exists -- and they consider following EU rules post-Brexit an affront on their sovereignty.

"Britain says it will not impose border checks. So has Ireland. The EU says there must be checks on British goods coming in. A brief status quo on the border seems likely. But the EU will want to see at least discreet checks being made, rather as are envisaged under the “alternative arrangements”.

If not, Britain would have a “back door” to the EU single market and Ireland could risk having its own exports to the rest of the EU being subject to checks at EU ports to ensure they are not British." "... the EU says the backstop is a vital defense for its single market against a major economy (GB) dodging its rules."

We don't really have a North American equivalent, but this is a weak approximation. Assume Bacardi has made a deal with Mexico. They ship their rum to Mexico, and then it drives over the border into the US uninspected and untaxed.

Products going into the EU must comply with EU laws of production, and must be taxed. An unchecked border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic guarantees unregulated and untaxed foreign products flooding the EU markets.

All of my quoted material came from here.

B-Day -22

Lest anyone think that I am pro-Brexit, I am not! It is a bad idea, and will cause more harm to the British economy than the ignorant voters were able to understand.

However, if it's gonna happen anyway, I hope it helps ME.

In Poland, they believe that Brexit was aimed that THEM. Here is the narrative as they see it.

Polish people provided major assistance during WWII in the fight against the Nazis -- specifically in the Battle of Britain (Polish Air Force) and in a battle in Monte Cassino, Italy (Polish Ground Troops).. These are key lessons every Polish student learns - even after their country was partitioned into nothingness, their people still fought the good fight.

After Poland threw off communism in the 1980s, many Poles started migrating into Western Europe, looking for better paying jobs. Lots found their way to GB -- entire communities of Poles living together in GB, eating kielbasa and doing the shit jobs. (Think of it like the Mexicans in the US, only with tortillas.) The Poles assumed that their participation in the Battle of Britain gave them some sort of "Welcome In" status -- but GB has a short memory.

GB malcontents started grumbling that ‘those immigrants are taking our jobs’ (jobs no Brit wanted, just like lawn service or roofing in the US) and the hubbub grew louder. The deafening roar coincided with the European refugee crisis of 2013-2015, which was when record numbers of Africans and Muslims arrived in the EU, many escaping horrific governments or famines back home.

So, the Brits jumped on the global “Immigration hysteria” band wagon of 2016, and said "we can leave the EU, get out from under their immigration rules, under the guise of not wanting the brown people, when really we just don't want these Poles".

And voila! Brexit!!

This is the narrative I've been told by adult students and Polish teacher colleagues. I don't know if it's true, but it's a widely held belief here.

Sunset Watch: Mar 4

5:19 today... and those temperatures are scary because we know winter will come back before the real spring. 

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B-Day -25

The EU Withdrawal Bill states that at 23:00 GMT, Friday March 29, 2019, Great Britain will leave the European Union.

This referendum was part of the conservative hysteria and Clorox wave flooding whiter parts of the globe in 2016, and as with the election of Trump, the voters in the GB fly-overs really didn't think things through to the end.

According to reports, things could get dire, quick.

Here is a link to John Oliver’s informative take.

Here is an article suggesting farmers are at risk of suicide, owing in part of Brexit.

UK politics are at a fever pitch, with Tony Blair screaming "Don't do it!", while Theresa May is doubling down to do the business as the people have instructed -- even if it means following the instructions of your GPS as she drives you over the white cliffs of Dover.

Why do I care about this, you might ask.

Because in the current state of animosity between the EU and GB, exactly like a 1970s divorce shown on Lifetime TV, it is probable that as of March 30, 2019, GB citizens who want to work in the Eurozone will be on the same footing as Americans, Canadians, Australians, Kiwis, etc. Meaning in general, they will need to get a visa to work there.

In specific, the business sector teaching English to non-English speakers -- which in Europe has long met the consumer demand for "Mother Tongue" speakers with Brits (or in small numbers with other native speakers who marry Europeans or have a verifiable heritage enabling them to obtain dual citizenship) sans Visa -- will need to address how they will continue to provide these services, who will they bring to provide said services.

And I can only think that... sumbody gon' be gettin' visas.

More to come….

Find more Brexit intel here and here.

Vroom Vroom

So here's an interesting concept, which I'd never heard of....

In Poland, many cars, even cars direct from US car manufacturers, are designed to crank using gasoline, then switch over to LP gas during driving -- because LP is cheaper.

You can purchase the LP at the station where you purchase gasoline -- filling both tanks at the same time.

Consumers can also add this LP feature after purchasing the car, but this means the LP will take up space in your trunk.

Do we have this in the US????

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Sunset Watch: Feb 12

From 4:04 on Jan 21 to 4:43 on Feb 12. I can feel my spirits lifting every day...

The global warming doesn’t hurt!!!

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